### A New Era for African Elephant Conservation: The Largest Population Survey Yet Shows Disturbing Declines with Some Rays of Hope
Initiating in the African wilderness in 1964 and encompassing over fifty years, the most extensive examination of African elephant numbers thus far has revealed a significant decrease across the continent, leaving both forest and savanna elephants in vulnerable situations. The study, recently unveiled in the *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* ([DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2403816121](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2403816121)), reveals shocking losses, yet also indicates that conservation initiatives are yielding optimism for the future.
This landmark analysis, which utilizes over 1,300 surveys conducted in 475 locations across 37 countries from 1964 to 2016, provides the most thorough estimate of elephant populations to date. According to the findings, the forest elephant population has plummeted by an alarming 90%, while savanna elephants have experienced a 70% reduction. The overall average estimated decline is an alarming 77%. However, certain populations, especially in parts of southern Africa, present a rare and encouraging success story for conservationists and policymakers.
### Methods to Monitor Elephants Across a Huge Continent
Monitoring the populations of African elephants is far from simple. The continent is more than three times the size of the United States, and the habitats where elephants reside differ significantly. Forest elephants, being smaller, more elusive, and confined to dense tropical jungles, necessitate ground specialists for meticulous tracking, while their larger savanna counterparts migrate across open woodlands and grasslands, often examined by aerial spotters.
Survey efforts, spanning fifty years and encompassing various terrains, aimed at documenting population distributions and trends across expansive and isolated regions. According to the research led by an international team, including Professor George Wittemyer from Colorado State University, the intricacies of surveying elephants have resulted in both hurdles and substantial advancements.
### Regional Variability: Threats Differ Across the Continent
One of the key insights from the survey is the diverse nature of threats faced by African elephant populations according to region. While some savanna elephants in southern Africa benefit from conservation initiatives, others are on the edge of extinction.
Scientists estimate that forest elephants, mainly found in central and western Africa, have encountered the steepest population declines, primarily due to rampant ivory poaching and habitat fragmentation. Conversely, the conflict-ridden Sahel region in northern Africa has been particularly affected, as armed conflicts heighten the vulnerability of wildlife, including elephants, to poaching and displacement.
On the other hand, southern Africa displays a more positive scenario. Countries like Botswana illustrate flourishing elephant populations, thanks to effective wildlife protection strategies and forward-thinking conservation policies. Despite the existing challenges, southeastern and southwestern Africa have also achieved some level of success through sustainable management practices aimed at curbing poaching and habitat degradation. Conservationists are hopeful that these regions can serve as templates for other areas on the continent.
### A Groundbreaking Method for Elephant Population Surveys
Traditionally, techniques for counting elephants have faced challenges, including inconsistent survey locations and declines in the size of protected areas. The researchers behind this recent assessment tackled these obstacles by creating a new scientific methodology to evaluate elephant population trends.
Charles Edwards, a research scientist and key contributor from CEscape consultancy services, explained: “The strength of our approach is that we could deduce these trends even in areas where the data were exceedingly sparse, allowing us to compare results from each survey site.”
This innovative method effectively addresses data gaps, enabling scientists to monitor trends even in places that have not seen regular observation or robust data collection. This approach enhances our understanding of population changes across broader areas and outlines a framework for future monitoring initiatives.
The study not only captures a momentary glimpse of current populations; it also provides conservationists with the necessary tools to predict and develop strategies for elephant conservation tailored to specific local and regional conditions.
### A Complex Dilemma with Opportunities for Optimism
While some regions present bleak statistics, the study overall affords a crucial insight into the varying levels of population decline and resilience observed in certain protected areas. It underscores the significance of tailored strategies in elephant conservation going forward.
“The context and solutions at different sites can vary greatly,” remarked Professor Wittemyer. “There are instances where effective management and protection of these populations are occurring,” indicating that policies customized to the on-the-ground realities are essential for preserving these iconic species.
Endangered by poaching, habitat destruction, and climate change, Africa’s elephants are at a pivotal juncture. Some regions are still experiencing dire losses, while others, such as Botswana and neighboring southern African nations, present a glimmer of hope. The study highlights that with focused conservation efforts