A thought-provoking concept emerges from the dense forests. Recent modeling indicates that the fear of supernatural retribution, akin to that depicted in tales of forest guardians and river deities, may dissuade individuals from polluting shared natural assets.
This research, spearheaded by Assistant Professor Shota Shibasaki from Doshisha University and published on October 15, 2025, in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, employs evolutionary game theory to examine when such convictions might effectively enhance conservation efforts. The study intertwines three dynamic elements: the strength of belief, the behavior of resource extraction, and the levels of resources, while investigating which combinations foster restraint.
Envision a moss-covered mountain trail beneath cedars after a rain, stone shrines glistening with moisture, and a wooden gate partially engulfed by ferns. In numerous cultural backgrounds, these are not voids. They are monitored. Folklore suggests that hubris leads to repercussions, prompting individuals to tread carefully. The inquiry is whether this cultural reasoning can still influence behavior in the present day.
Shibasaki and his team simulate a public goods game interlinked with environmental feedback. Participants opt for low or high resource extraction. Resources regrow in a logistic manner. The belief in divine penalty introduces an internal cost for potential overexploitors. Cultural transmission happens through favorable and unfavorable missionary events, which dictate the speed at which beliefs spread or fade. The team adjusts parameters and monitors which strategies endure and the extent of nature that remains.
“I am intrigued by how human culture, including supernatural beliefs, impacts the natural environment and the reverse.”
Two key conditions arise. Firstly, the fear of punishment must surpass the immediate allure of overexploitation; otherwise, restraint collapses. Secondly, belief cannot be so harsh that no one adopts it, as transmission needs to outstrip loss. Achieving both conditions allows cooperative believers to proliferate, enforcement incurs no community costs, and resources regenerate without the need for policing or fines.
## What The Model Investigated
The researchers conceptualize temptation as the benefits disparity between selfish and cooperative extraction, which expands with resource availability. They interpret fear as a cost shouldered solely by selfish believers, with its intensity scaling according to the perceived abundance of nature. Cultural transformation is approached epidemiologically, with rates for acquiring or relinquishing belief through interactions with others.
From this point, the model produces distinct regimes. In scenarios of weak fear or strong disbelief, selfish nonbelievers prevail, leading to a significant depletion of the commons. When positive transmission and sufficient fear are introduced, cooperative believers dominate, resulting in the highest stable resource levels. In intermediate scenarios, diverse mixes can persist or oscillations may manifest, yet average resource levels continue to improve as long as cooperative believers remain in the populace.
Crucially, the analysis reveals constraints. If negative transmission eclipses positive transmission, disbelief spreads and self-serving strategies become entrenched. If cooperative extraction is too similar to selfish extraction, temptation remains elevated, necessitating unrealistically high levels of belief to balance it.
## Why It Is Relevant Today
For policymakers, the mechanisms are straightforward. Amplify the perceived costs of overuse (through narratives, rituals, or moral education) and enhance the transmissibility of conservation norms. Either action can propel a community past the thresholds where restraint becomes self-sustaining. This doesn’t necessitate the creation of new stories; many regions already possess narratives surrounding sacred groves, river spirits, or mountain guardians. Collaborating with trusted figures can elevate positive transmission without coercive measures.
The authors posit that the same reasoning applies to secular ethics. Replace fear of spirits with internalized guilt or pride, and the inequality persists: prosocial emotions must outweigh temptation, and their transmission must exceed erosion. The goal is not to debate metaphysics, but to delineate the minimal requirements under which culture enforces compliance at no additional cost.
Cautions exist. The model is qualitative and lacks quantified measures for fear, temptation, or transmission in actual communities. Field experiments would require meticulous ethics, clear community consent, and deference to local traditions. Nevertheless, by formalizing the co-evolution of belief, behavior, and ecology, the research provides a concise framework for interventions that are culturally rooted and cost-effective.
“Having grown up in Japan, I am acquainted with folklore that depicted nature as sacred and spiritually protected.”
From this perspective, tengu along a trail or spirits beside a river aren’t merely tales. They function as social technologies that reduce monitoring expenses, render restraint prominent, and preserve shared resources. In settings where formal enforcement is scant, the appropriate cultural adjustments could translate to denser forests, purer water, and more sustainable livelihoods.
[Humanities and Social Sciences Communications: 10.1057/s41599-025-05734-7](https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05734-7)
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