India’s Metropolises Confront Infrastructure Issues Stemming from Overpopulation and Urban Strain

The earth beneath several of India’s major cities is gradually giving way, imperceptibly yet significantly, posing risks to thousands of structures and jeopardizing millions of inhabitants who remain unaware that the ground is shifting below them.

A recent analysis monitoring land subsidence in five Indian metropolitan areas uncovers a concerning trend: almost 339 square miles of city land is subsiding, primarily due to an essential resource that urban areas are exhausting too rapidly. Groundwater.

“When urban areas extract more water from aquifers than natural processes can replenish, the ground effectively sinks,” stated Susanna Werth, assistant professor of geosciences at Virginia Tech and co-author of the study published on October 28 in Nature Sustainability. The research focused on New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, and Bengaluru, which together accommodate nearly 80 million residents and over 13 million structures.

Hidden Harm, Quantifiable Peril

Utilizing satellite radar information gathered from 2015 to 2023, scientists discovered something that most urban planners would prefer to avoid: uneven ground subsidence that undermines foundations, ruptures utility lines, and heightens vulnerabilities to flooding and earthquakes. The statistics are alarming. Nearly 1.9 million individuals reside in regions witnessing subsidence rates surpassing 4 millimeters annually. Although this may seem insignificant, over time, millimeters accumulate to meters.

Currently, the study projects that 2,406 structures in New Delhi, Mumbai, and Chennai are at high risk of structural impairment. If prevailing patterns persist, this number could escalate to over 23,000 structures in the next half-century. These are not deserted warehouses or vacant lots. These are residences, workplaces, educational institutions, and hospitals standing on ground that is quietly yielding.

Leading author Nitheshnirmal Sadhasivam, a graduate student collaborating with Werth, stated it simply:

“The silent pressure we observe today could trigger disasters tomorrow if cities do not modify their infrastructure and groundwater management practices.”

A Global Alert Documented in Satellite Imagery

The research team did not depend on conjecture or sporadic ground measurements. They employed advanced satellite radar methodologies to chart subsidence trends across extensive urban areas, uncovering risks that remain concealed until a catastrophic event occurs. A fissured foundation here, a ruptured water line there. By the time the damage is evident, the underlying issue has often been developing for years.

Co-author Manoochehr Shirzaei, an associate professor at Virginia Tech, highlighted the preventive capabilities of this technology:

“Our study illustrates how satellite-based ground mapping can uncover risks that would otherwise remain hidden until a collapse takes place. Investing in adaptation now, through groundwater management, resilient architecture, and proactive surveillance, will preserve lives and resources over time.”

The ramifications extend well beyond India. Cities across the globe are expanding quickly, often in areas where aquifers are already under strain. Jakarta, Mexico City, and Bangkok have all faced considerable subsidence. As urban populations increase and climate dynamics evolve, the strain on subterranean water supplies will only grow. What is unfolding in India could be a precursor to the difficulties facing many other megacities in the upcoming decades.

The critical issue is whether cities will take action before the ground crumbles or wait until the fissures become too large to overlook. Currently, satellites are observing. The data is unmistakable. What remains uncertain is whether decision-makers will heed the warnings before the damage is beyond repair.

Nature Sustainability: 10.1038/s41893-025-01663-0