Engaging with a Nobel laureate could potentially diminish a researcher’s likelihood of securing a Nobel prize. This calls into question the belief that having a laureate as a scientific colleague enhances the probability of being contacted by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
Numerous laureates are part of an academic lineage where former mentors and PhD graduates have also been Nobel recipients. For instance, John Clarke – awarded the 2025 Nobel prize in physics for his research on macroscopic quantum tunneling – guided fellow laureates Michel Devoret and John Martinis. Clarke’s academic ‘grandparents’ were also laureates, such as Pyotr Kapitsa (1978 physics) and Ernest Rutherford (1908 physics).
Working with laureates appears to be a reliable means of enhancing the odds of earning a forthcoming Nobel prize. Nevertheless, a research team in China argues that this is not necessarily true.
The researchers examined nomination data for the Nobel prize in physics from 1930 to 1970 and discovered that scientists collaborating with laureates were less prone to win a Nobel prize. (The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences that bestows the Nobel prizes only makes data public after half a century.)
While collaborations may ‘enhance academic visibility and influence’ via increased citation counts, they may also ‘create a ceiling on independence,’ according to Zikang Zhao from Nanjing University in China.
He further explains that the academy could overlook the independence and originality of contributions made by researchers who closely collaborated with a laureate, ultimately reducing the chances of a scientist obtaining a Nobel prize.
However, he clarifies that this study ‘is not discouraging collaboration’ and believes that it is essential for scientists to continue working together to progress science.
Zhao mentions that ‘the Nobel prize still adheres to its “rule of three”,’ where only three individuals can be awarded the prize. He contends that this ‘creates a significant bottleneck’ as ‘nominators try to sift through a large team to pinpoint [key] contributors’, complicating the identification of younger, more independent collaborators.
Other elements besides collaboration may affect who is awarded a Nobel prize. ‘It is crucial to remember that the decision to grant the prize is made by humans, who carry biases,’ states Guillermo Restrepo, a chemist at the Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences in Germany. ‘Although learning from exceptional figures, being inspired by revolutionary ideas, and building upon established knowledge is essential, genuine scientific progress often relies on the capability to transcend what has already been accomplished,’ he asserts. ‘Collaborating with laureates typically works against the journey to Stockholm.’